Given spans of thousands of years, it's safer to say "no conclusion" from eleven years, which is a drop in the bucket, after all. Climate change is at issue; if the next ice age will be worse than the last, and we're getting only a temporary respite - even if it feels like being the guest of honor at a lobster feast, it's long past time to seek for remedies. Accepted, the present remedies may well be wrong or premature, of course.

more food for thought

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/volcaniceruptionscausedancientwarmingandcooling

The IPCC has been producing a series of those reports. The 3^rd report of the series predicted an average increase in surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 C degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, and the average sea level was projected to rise by 10 to 90 cm over the same period.

The 4^th report came out in 2007, and predicted temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century and that sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm.

The large uncertainty range indicates … large uncertainties, I guess. But we are also seeing the uncertainty range grow—in both directions (the 1.1 degree lower limit in the 2007 report is less than the 1.4 degree lower limit in the 2001 report, indicating that 1.4 degrees wasn’t the lower limit after all).

It’s also interesting that the rise in sea level associated with the upper value for the projected temperature increase in the 2001 report—5.8 degrees, was 90 cm, while a higher upper limit for the projected temperature increase in the 2007 report—6.4 degrees, is associated with a lesser increase in sea level—59 cm instead of 90 (less by more than a third, even though the temperature projection went up from 5.8 to 6.4 ).

Evidently the models are undergoing constant changes. The 5^th IPCC report is already in the works, and it should come out in 2014.

I remember the words a wise old mentor nearly 30 years ago:

"If you change your mind later, then you can revise your analysis, resulting in continued employment."

The problem with attributing an ice age to a particular episode of volcanic activity is that we can see a cycle of ice ages and shorter warm periods recurring at a regular interval of about 100,000 years. Unless we can also identify a regular cycle of volcanic activity recurring over a similar interval, then there must be a different cause.

One possible explanation is the theory of so-called "Milankovitch cycles." Milankovitch's theory describes the collective effects of variations in the eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit around the sun. They say you can come up with a 100,000-year cycle if you study those variations, but the explanations on the net are very arcane.

Change is a constant.

No you said everything else that follows, including the belief that there's global warming because you farted.

Human activity that produces greenhouse gas.

And yes, I said the rest of it, too. I'm surprised you have no comment on whether or not we have an inflated idea of our own importance. Do you think we caused the great flood and whatever it was that rained down on Sodom and Gomorah? Do you think volcanos erupt for our benefit, and earthquakes lightening occur because of our sins?

Actually, I think methane gas is primarily produced by cows, if that's the farting gas you're referring to.

What are you trying to do, get a religious discussion going so you can get me to step into the barrel? Sorry, no sale today.