The prophet Al reminds me of the biblical prophets. For our sins, a great flood will come.

Would that be Wierd Al Jankovic?

God, he's got me turning into a straight man!

In 2004, the small town of Boscastle, Cornwall suffered extensive flood damage after a 'freak' storm:



A couple of days ago, the small town of Cockermouth, Cumbria suffered a "once-in-a-thousand-years" rainfall event which resulted in tragic loss of life:



Once is happenstance.
Twice is coincidence.
Three times is enemy action.

"Once is happenstance.
Twice is coincidence.
Three times is enemy action"

I like that. So far, we've had one helluvah lot of enemy action.

Are there more floods now than there were in 1999?

Are you curious, or do you already know the answer?

Here's one for India, at least:

http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/node/44310

I don't know the answer.

If the frequency of floods has been increasing, i.e., if it has been higher during the period, 2004--2009 than it was in 1999, we'll have to take a hard look at how the frequency of flooding is affected by temperature.

1999 was an el-nino year. 2009 was also an el-nino year, but much cooler than 1999.

Interesting article on india. It shows that the cause of flooding in India is clearly "human activity," but that it has nothing to do with climate change.

Geez, you read fast! Do you absorb as quickly?

Here's a NY article:

http://www.rapidrefile.us/blog/about/the-top-5-worst-floods-in-new-york-history/

- with a followup from its sources:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,201297,00.html

I don't see a correlation that's immediately obvious from the New York article.

1889 was near the end of a 15-year cooling period. After that, temps rose until the late 1990s. Then came 1913, near the end of another 15-year cooling period.

!938, on the other hand, occurred during a warming period--although not at the peak.

2006 and 2007 are well after the temperature peak during the el-nino year of 1999, but right now I don't think we can say whether or not 2006-2007 are part of a temperature trend, either up or down.

If we're talking in terms of a thousand or more years, we can say none of the above is a very clear marker. To say otherwise is to be onstinate in the face of a thousand years.

I wouldn't attempt to predict a long-term temperature trend based on a 10-year trend, but that doesn't mean we can't try to identify the factors that cause flooding (is it climate change--or is logging and construction disrupting the drainage paths?). And if it's climate change, we can look for short-term causes (if any) of climate change, even if the long-term trend has different causes.

I don't see how that follows, but anyway, here's a news story on those "thousand year floods" in Cumbria:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6616952/Cumbria-floods-once-in-a-thousand-years-deluge-swamps-defences.html

Incidentally, the cost to the insurance companies of the Cockermouth tragedy will be astronomical.

And the authorities are having to survey many Cumbrian bridges to see if they're still safe; one, at least, is on the verge of certain collapse.